June 26, 2019

Washington Wire: Election Results Summary


To say the election results are a political earthquake is an understatement. Few thought Trump would win, we gave him a 20% chance on Monday, about the same as a kicker missing an Extra Point attempt in an NFL game. His emphasis on change and draining the swamp vs. corruption and business as usual clearly not only resonated but overshadowed any concerns voters had about the candidate himself. Clinton underperformed Obama in every area imaginable in every state and among every demographic. People were telling the Clinton campaign they were taking the Rust Belt and unions for granted for months and it showed as Clinton last visited Wisconsin on April 2nd.


As of this writing (3:57am Eastern), we only have one Senate race outstanding (New Hampshire), meaning we know that Republicans will hold the Senate and Trump likely only needs 7-8 Democrats to confirm a Supreme Court nominee. Things do not look better for Democrats in 2018 as they have 25 Senators up for reelection. Just as the Republicans conducted an autopsy on their 2012 loss, there is no question Democrats should do the same but it is unclear if they only focus on their candidate or on their broader message and policy positions.

For a quick two-page summar of the Presidential, Congressional and Governor races that may be of interest, please click here